* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 62 66 68 72 79 82 84 84 85 87 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 62 66 68 72 79 82 84 84 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 56 65 72 77 81 87 92 95 98 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 16 10 4 11 12 15 13 11 9 15 15 21 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 0 3 1 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 100 92 96 111 113 45 39 48 37 26 360 309 282 267 273 266 256 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 156 159 160 160 164 160 154 156 155 153 154 159 161 170 172 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 67 67 70 70 68 63 58 56 52 55 58 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 21 19 13 9 8 6 12 0 -3 0 -7 -14 -25 -17 -38 200 MB DIV 8 -3 4 -12 -42 -34 14 22 7 0 -15 -21 18 40 -3 15 4 700-850 TADV 13 9 10 10 10 5 3 1 2 2 5 2 -2 -9 -2 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 1130 1285 1424 1541 1671 1674 1644 1501 1363 1271 1202 954 732 469 222 191 322 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.4 15.3 16.4 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.6 30.0 31.2 32.5 35.1 37.9 40.6 43.1 45.7 48.4 51.2 54.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 23 24 25 38 27 36 34 67 51 60 47 64 68 70 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 358 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 42. 49. 54. 58. 59. 57. 57. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 32. 36. 38. 42. 49. 52. 54. 54. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 27.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.7% 11.2% 9.1% 6.6% 11.1% 12.7% 17.4% Logistic: 6.1% 18.7% 11.9% 6.3% 5.4% 15.2% 19.8% 38.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 42.4% 8.0% 1.0% 0.5% 3.1% 2.0% 31.5% Consensus: 3.7% 25.9% 10.3% 5.4% 4.2% 9.8% 11.5% 29.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/03/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 62 66 68 72 79 82 84 84 85 87 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 46 53 58 62 64 68 75 78 80 80 81 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 40 47 52 56 58 62 69 72 74 74 75 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 42 46 48 52 59 62 64 64 65 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT