* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 44 58 72 86 98 106 111 118 116 109 103 97 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 44 58 72 86 98 106 111 118 116 109 103 97 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 31 40 52 69 90 108 121 132 125 100 79 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 9 10 6 9 14 15 12 11 6 6 9 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 0 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 1 26 14 5 6 51 78 98 94 55 40 25 74 61 31 242 266 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.5 26.1 25.6 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 168 167 166 164 163 165 166 162 157 151 126 121 102 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.2 -50.5 -49.4 -50.2 -49.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 80 82 84 84 83 86 86 87 86 82 77 74 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 9 13 14 17 21 26 31 34 41 44 41 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 39 35 32 29 35 36 51 77 97 104 116 114 95 83 60 200 MB DIV 38 61 75 66 52 90 97 170 167 156 136 161 108 70 40 65 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 2 -2 -8 -11 -8 -6 -1 0 9 0 LAND (KM) 483 518 574 618 647 701 733 755 829 909 1019 1012 1058 1074 1092 1125 1224 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.8 99.1 100.2 101.4 102.4 104.0 105.3 106.8 108.7 110.8 113.0 115.3 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 7 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 33 37 34 30 26 23 23 27 51 16 27 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -0. 7. 18. 28. 37. 43. 48. 52. 56. 59. 59. 59. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 21. 28. 34. 37. 41. 40. 34. 27. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 24. 38. 52. 66. 78. 86. 91. 98. 96. 89. 83. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 97.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 8.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 6.6% 13.5% 27.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 6.8% Consensus: 0.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 2.2% 4.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##