* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 52 56 59 60 62 66 68 69 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 52 56 59 60 62 66 68 69 69 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 41 46 52 57 61 64 68 71 74 75 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 14 10 10 14 14 13 14 13 21 22 24 24 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 4 2 4 -4 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 74 74 83 78 75 35 33 17 1 335 311 274 274 260 255 257 257 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.6 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 159 156 162 160 158 147 157 161 159 168 172 168 167 161 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 66 65 69 66 66 60 59 55 58 58 62 63 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 25 21 18 17 15 13 4 5 2 1 -17 -27 -37 -48 -49 200 MB DIV -5 10 2 -25 -62 -6 20 40 27 25 -1 -4 21 13 43 15 52 700-850 TADV 0 5 5 6 4 2 0 4 4 0 0 1 -9 -7 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1259 1397 1514 1629 1739 1693 1688 1532 1460 1388 1178 976 686 526 533 643 735 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.9 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.7 30.9 32.1 33.2 35.8 38.5 41.1 43.6 46.3 49.4 52.6 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 14 13 14 14 15 17 18 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 25 26 39 27 42 41 41 67 47 59 73 57 55 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 15. 24. 33. 41. 47. 52. 55. 56. 54. 53. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 28.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 16.7% 11.2% 9.3% 7.0% 11.2% 12.0% 15.4% Logistic: 4.2% 15.8% 10.6% 8.2% 6.1% 15.5% 18.7% 25.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 21.5% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 1.7% 13.8% Consensus: 3.0% 18.0% 8.2% 5.9% 4.4% 9.4% 10.8% 18.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/03/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 41 47 52 56 59 60 62 66 68 69 69 69 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 48 52 55 56 58 62 64 65 65 65 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 42 46 49 50 52 56 58 59 59 59 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 38 41 42 44 48 50 51 51 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT