* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 39 48 57 66 73 78 80 81 80 75 71 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 39 48 57 66 73 78 80 81 80 75 71 68 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 59 68 78 88 94 94 87 79 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 11 12 15 15 8 9 10 9 5 5 10 8 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 38 35 43 55 73 75 100 77 50 31 29 39 74 41 283 314 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.0 28.8 28.6 26.7 26.1 24.7 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 165 164 162 161 161 166 167 155 153 132 125 110 104 103 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 83 84 85 85 85 88 87 86 82 76 71 67 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 43 41 38 34 38 33 52 66 91 111 129 137 111 85 59 200 MB DIV 62 90 70 57 55 90 171 174 175 125 121 83 33 18 46 38 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -8 -11 -15 -13 -5 -2 -2 -3 2 LAND (KM) 541 595 645 695 717 767 789 770 783 791 816 851 976 1117 1168 1223 1322 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.1 13.0 14.4 16.1 17.6 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 101.0 102.1 103.0 103.7 104.7 105.4 106.5 108.2 110.3 112.9 115.9 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 8 6 4 5 8 11 14 16 15 14 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 39 35 30 29 27 25 22 23 27 18 26 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 26. 34. 39. 44. 47. 50. 52. 51. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 23. 32. 41. 48. 53. 55. 56. 55. 50. 46. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.1% 28.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 35.6% 16.5% 8.6% 6.9% 17.6% 60.0% 69.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 37.9% 21.3% 6.7% 2.2% 18.8% 17.9% 76.9% Consensus: 3.0% 34.8% 19.4% 5.1% 3.0% 20.2% 35.3% 48.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 7.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##