* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 50 66 82 96 106 115 122 127 124 113 102 96 90 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 50 66 82 96 106 115 122 127 124 113 102 96 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 32 36 41 54 73 97 122 138 144 142 120 94 75 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 8 6 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -2 -4 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 32 26 28 41 57 82 77 75 30 53 27 37 51 53 117 252 239 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.4 29.0 28.5 25.9 25.3 24.4 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 166 164 161 161 165 166 160 156 151 124 118 108 97 90 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -50.6 -49.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 83 84 85 84 86 87 89 87 83 78 74 68 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 15 20 24 27 34 38 44 45 41 36 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 37 38 36 40 38 45 67 100 107 121 128 109 91 76 62 200 MB DIV 79 49 41 63 91 112 169 140 147 148 135 87 31 15 42 23 0 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 -10 -9 -3 -4 0 -8 2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 571 608 654 681 720 769 794 823 877 966 977 1053 1091 1152 1258 1416 1588 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.8 17.0 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.9 102.2 103.2 104.0 104.7 105.7 107.0 108.6 110.7 113.0 115.5 117.9 120.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 6 5 8 10 12 13 13 13 15 15 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 33 30 28 23 22 23 28 48 16 32 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 17. 26. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 51. 50. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 21. 27. 36. 41. 47. 44. 35. 27. 22. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 25. 41. 57. 71. 81. 90. 97. 102. 99. 88. 77. 71. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 100.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.6% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 46.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 42.6% 18.0% 10.8% 8.8% 26.6% 67.9% 65.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 34.3% 14.0% 5.4% 3.5% 35.3% 30.3% 64.9% Consensus: 2.2% 36.5% 17.5% 5.4% 4.1% 29.3% 48.2% 43.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 21.0% 28.0% 70.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##