* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122023 09/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 26 27 30 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 26 27 30 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 11 12 14 11 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 2 -1 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 237 221 216 218 235 255 227 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 124 125 125 122 121 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 34 35 39 44 46 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -52 -61 -66 -72 -81 -87 -85 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -19 -12 -1 -19 -10 -11 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 3 1 -3 -3 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1796 1838 1880 1907 1934 1918 1843 1779 1719 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.6 33.9 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.5 33.8 33.3 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 33.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.44 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.9% 7.1% 4.9% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/04/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 26 27 30 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 28 31 33 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 26 29 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 23 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT