* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 43 55 68 79 89 90 93 95 100 105 108 112 113 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 43 55 68 79 89 90 93 95 100 105 108 112 113 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 44 55 68 80 89 94 98 100 104 109 111 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 10 12 7 8 6 0 9 17 17 10 7 13 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 4 5 6 7 2 0 0 2 4 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 67 60 54 43 44 43 44 76 340 260 252 285 264 279 251 307 289 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 160 164 157 149 155 159 159 159 157 161 167 170 168 166 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 64 63 60 60 59 62 61 63 63 67 66 64 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 14 17 20 24 23 24 25 28 31 33 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 27 30 27 27 34 29 35 32 29 20 19 18 18 16 10 200 MB DIV 7 -24 -36 -20 -3 42 64 80 57 27 14 34 31 34 25 24 24 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 5 6 5 1 0 -2 0 0 -9 -8 -3 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 1508 1644 1774 1758 1746 1657 1514 1427 1261 975 708 370 150 81 109 195 339 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.4 33.7 35.1 36.6 39.5 42.4 45.2 48.3 51.7 55.1 58.5 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 15 12 9 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 40 35 32 37 52 50 48 62 55 74 77 73 69 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 44. 49. 52. 54. 52. 52. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 17. 18. 19. 21. 24. 26. 29. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 13. 25. 38. 49. 59. 60. 63. 65. 70. 75. 78. 82. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 31.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 16.0% 10.6% 8.7% 6.4% 10.8% 13.0% 22.6% Logistic: 2.8% 9.9% 6.7% 2.2% 1.1% 3.6% 4.2% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.1% Consensus: 2.0% 10.7% 6.2% 3.6% 2.5% 4.9% 5.9% 11.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/04/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 43 55 68 79 89 90 93 95 100 105 108 112 113 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 41 53 66 77 87 88 91 93 98 103 106 110 111 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 35 47 60 71 81 82 85 87 92 97 100 104 105 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 38 51 62 72 73 76 78 83 88 91 95 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT