* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 35 40 54 69 84 98 111 115 115 107 96 87 82 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 35 40 54 69 84 98 111 115 115 107 96 87 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 40 54 74 100 123 130 121 97 77 65 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 11 10 11 10 9 11 6 9 9 9 3 1 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -6 -3 -4 1 -3 0 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 20 29 39 63 76 69 78 74 44 46 27 42 59 63 211 85 169 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.8 30.2 29.8 29.1 28.6 26.4 25.9 24.2 24.6 23.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 166 163 160 162 167 164 157 152 130 124 105 108 96 91 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 83 83 83 84 85 85 87 90 89 84 80 73 68 69 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 17 21 26 31 38 42 45 43 39 33 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 44 43 40 48 40 59 79 106 116 133 142 112 96 62 54 200 MB DIV 61 48 72 101 105 153 152 179 145 145 93 65 25 6 44 13 13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -8 -12 -6 -7 -4 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 590 629 662 689 723 770 810 840 901 906 913 998 1109 1208 1303 1402 1495 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.4 13.1 14.1 15.5 17.1 18.7 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.1 104.0 104.7 105.3 106.5 107.8 109.4 111.4 113.6 116.2 119.2 122.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 15 16 13 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 35 32 29 26 22 22 24 39 28 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 25. 33. 38. 42. 45. 47. 48. 47. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 21. 30. 40. 44. 47. 40. 32. 23. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 29. 44. 59. 73. 86. 90. 90. 82. 71. 62. 57. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 102.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 37.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 9.0% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 6.0% 8.6% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% 11.7% 7.4% 0.5% 0.3% 9.8% 15.5% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 68.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##