* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 47 60 77 82 89 92 94 98 105 109 112 112 115 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 47 60 77 82 89 92 94 98 105 109 112 112 115 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 50 62 72 81 89 97 102 107 112 113 113 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 16 12 12 12 6 7 13 14 12 9 13 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 5 0 1 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 61 54 45 49 52 53 47 38 355 245 261 262 270 262 278 322 320 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 164 169 173 169 163 150 153 161 168 166 160 160 164 163 167 167 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 66 65 63 65 62 61 65 63 66 65 64 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 14 17 23 23 25 26 27 29 33 35 38 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 35 37 39 37 36 28 30 42 29 30 22 22 9 9 9 200 MB DIV -29 -32 -11 17 25 91 79 81 35 49 25 42 22 19 12 36 29 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -8 -5 -3 -11 -13 -10 -6 -2 0 5 LAND (KM) 1739 1691 1657 1649 1621 1479 1395 1346 1193 928 675 376 173 144 159 305 495 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.4 16.6 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.9 36.3 37.6 38.9 41.2 43.5 45.9 48.9 52.1 55.4 58.4 60.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 13 13 12 13 14 17 16 16 13 10 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 39 38 31 29 40 36 54 59 54 66 56 69 87 69 64 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 32. 39. 45. 50. 53. 55. 53. 52. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 23. 27. 28. 31. 30. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 30. 47. 52. 59. 62. 64. 68. 75. 79. 82. 82. 85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 33.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 16.5% 10.8% 8.7% 6.5% 11.2% 13.2% 22.5% Logistic: 4.7% 15.7% 9.1% 3.8% 2.9% 9.0% 11.7% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 21.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 2.8% 6.2% Consensus: 2.9% 17.8% 7.8% 4.2% 3.2% 7.1% 9.3% 14.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/04/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 41 47 60 77 82 89 92 94 98 105 109 112 112 115 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 57 74 79 86 89 91 95 102 106 109 109 112 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 50 67 72 79 82 84 88 95 99 102 102 105 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 39 56 61 68 71 73 77 84 88 91 91 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT