* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 66 81 94 110 119 121 119 110 100 92 86 81 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 66 81 94 110 119 121 119 110 100 92 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 59 77 100 124 134 131 113 92 77 67 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 7 12 10 8 9 7 3 0 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -6 -3 0 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 32 52 71 77 83 48 38 45 58 62 70 91 66 101 228 102 164 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 28.8 28.4 26.0 24.8 24.6 23.9 23.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 159 158 156 158 160 160 155 151 126 113 109 100 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 83 83 85 87 90 91 87 83 76 72 65 64 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 14 18 22 26 33 38 40 42 39 35 31 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 31 41 42 36 41 41 48 59 85 91 94 111 113 104 88 62 40 200 MB DIV 45 67 100 107 118 153 143 149 179 135 48 27 35 46 -4 -10 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -7 -4 -7 -3 -8 0 -5 1 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 624 662 693 726 764 846 912 955 987 920 882 980 1146 1312 1456 1523 1554 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.6 15.5 17.8 19.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.1 107.6 109.0 110.5 112.0 113.9 116.5 119.9 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 7 7 7 8 11 15 18 18 15 10 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 23 20 18 18 22 41 23 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. 42. 40. 38. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 20. 32. 38. 41. 41. 33. 26. 20. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 36. 51. 64. 80. 89. 91. 89. 80. 70. 62. 56. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 103.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 23.4% 19.3% 16.4% 0.0% 24.7% 35.6% 61.0% Logistic: 3.2% 24.6% 10.0% 5.0% 2.8% 13.1% 43.5% 43.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 24.1% 14.9% 4.1% 0.8% 8.3% 24.5% 49.2% Consensus: 5.4% 24.0% 14.8% 8.5% 1.2% 15.4% 34.5% 51.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 22.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 21.0% 39.0% 79.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##