* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 46 55 72 84 94 100 102 102 103 111 114 111 114 114 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 46 55 72 84 94 100 102 102 103 111 114 111 114 114 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 38 43 55 69 81 92 103 110 113 114 114 117 118 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 13 13 15 15 6 2 11 15 14 10 15 9 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 1 7 3 1 0 4 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 54 51 49 62 75 71 80 85 103 236 269 252 263 252 264 253 266 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 170 172 168 166 152 152 158 158 156 160 162 165 166 167 165 162 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -49.8 -50.0 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 62 61 60 58 59 58 60 62 63 60 58 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 16 18 22 24 28 30 31 33 32 37 40 38 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 39 43 38 44 32 46 54 55 53 51 51 57 61 61 78 200 MB DIV -29 -9 22 36 59 85 63 46 56 72 36 20 37 18 30 37 55 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -4 -6 -3 -6 -5 2 1 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1681 1666 1673 1575 1473 1287 1173 1130 885 673 530 293 209 255 386 495 543 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 15 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 30 31 39 38 54 57 70 48 69 60 80 64 62 73 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 39. 45. 50. 53. 55. 52. 51. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 24. 27. 26. 32. 34. 31. 33. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 16. 25. 42. 54. 64. 70. 72. 72. 73. 81. 84. 81. 84. 84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 34.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.95 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 20.3% 12.0% 9.4% 7.4% 12.0% 14.2% 27.2% Logistic: 3.4% 13.9% 8.4% 3.3% 1.6% 4.5% 3.1% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 3.5% 1.3% Consensus: 2.6% 14.4% 7.5% 4.3% 3.0% 5.7% 6.9% 10.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 32.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/04/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 39 46 55 72 84 94 100 102 102 103 111 114 111 114 114 18HR AGO 30 29 35 42 51 68 80 90 96 98 98 99 107 110 107 110 110 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 42 59 71 81 87 89 89 90 98 101 98 101 101 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 29 46 58 68 74 76 76 77 85 88 85 88 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT