* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 48 67 78 86 88 92 97 102 102 107 113 114 118 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 48 67 78 86 88 92 97 102 102 107 113 114 118 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 35 45 56 66 75 87 98 104 110 117 122 124 122 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 13 14 14 10 5 4 15 8 10 6 12 8 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 5 8 11 2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 44 39 48 52 47 51 64 3 318 277 280 278 292 300 5 300 288 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 173 172 168 160 151 154 156 159 156 162 161 164 165 167 166 164 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 62 63 62 63 63 65 68 65 66 64 64 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 15 18 18 25 27 29 29 32 35 38 37 40 44 46 50 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 45 40 45 43 45 53 46 33 46 42 54 47 57 59 85 200 MB DIV -13 22 48 66 106 83 75 61 77 36 34 30 8 35 45 57 70 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -5 -5 -8 -6 -13 -12 -9 -9 -7 0 2 5 11 8 LAND (KM) 1617 1620 1582 1472 1376 1255 1163 1089 871 677 513 290 242 286 360 494 542 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 30 36 35 42 54 55 74 47 72 60 76 65 71 63 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 24. 33. 41. 47. 52. 56. 57. 55. 55. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 16. 20. 21. 26. 31. 34. 31. 33. 39. 40. 42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 23. 42. 53. 61. 63. 67. 72. 77. 77. 82. 88. 89. 93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 36.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.99 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 19.3% 11.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 17.2% 9.1% 3.3% 1.7% 5.0% 5.4% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 5.6% 3.5% Consensus: 2.3% 13.9% 7.5% 3.6% 0.6% 1.8% 8.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/05/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 40 48 67 78 86 88 92 97 102 102 107 113 114 118 18HR AGO 25 24 29 36 44 63 74 82 84 88 93 98 98 103 109 110 114 12HR AGO 25 22 21 28 36 55 66 74 76 80 85 90 90 95 101 102 106 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 23 42 53 61 63 67 72 77 77 82 88 89 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT