* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112023 09/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 53 69 84 98 106 111 108 99 89 79 73 68 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 53 69 84 98 106 111 108 99 89 79 73 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 41 53 71 94 111 114 102 84 70 59 51 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 11 8 9 9 12 13 8 9 4 5 1 2 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 1 -1 4 8 SHEAR DIR 62 67 55 45 30 63 33 58 32 39 68 100 135 17 135 177 204 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.5 27.3 26.1 24.4 24.3 23.0 22.8 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 160 162 162 163 158 152 150 138 126 108 106 91 89 89 91 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -50.6 -51.0 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 83 83 84 86 86 86 83 77 73 68 66 60 56 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 18 21 27 32 36 42 43 39 35 30 27 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 48 53 56 65 79 107 125 126 132 116 111 94 67 57 53 200 MB DIV 105 94 92 101 124 156 125 123 103 59 38 2 18 17 3 23 2 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -6 -8 -7 -9 -10 -8 -3 -3 5 -5 5 0 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 663 671 686 697 714 763 881 885 943 1001 1086 1169 1300 1424 1503 1538 1619 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.2 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.0 109.7 111.9 114.2 116.5 118.8 121.3 123.8 126.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 14 12 11 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 23 23 22 22 38 15 25 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 31. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 24. 32. 39. 39. 33. 26. 18. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 39. 54. 68. 76. 81. 78. 69. 59. 49. 43. 38. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 105.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 ELEVEN 09/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 32.4% 19.8% 16.4% 0.0% 26.8% 56.9% 61.1% Logistic: 3.5% 33.8% 13.6% 7.8% 4.5% 23.8% 53.9% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 14.2% 9.8% 3.2% 0.2% 9.6% 13.2% 11.1% Consensus: 5.2% 26.8% 14.4% 9.1% 1.5% 20.1% 41.3% 31.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 30.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 32.0% 32.0% 71.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 ELEVEN 09/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##