* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112023 09/05/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 61 78 88 98 102 103 100 89 78 70 65 60 57 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 61 78 88 98 102 103 100 89 78 70 65 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 52 67 86 104 111 104 90 74 63 53 48 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 11 8 10 7 7 7 4 3 6 8 9 7 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 3 4 10 SHEAR DIR 70 51 48 51 45 61 31 31 22 65 94 111 171 228 214 214 224 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.5 27.4 26.3 24.7 24.4 23.1 22.9 22.8 23.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 163 160 154 151 139 128 111 107 93 91 89 91 92 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 84 85 84 83 81 74 66 60 61 62 58 54 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 21 24 30 33 36 38 34 30 27 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 50 56 62 86 115 136 145 144 145 122 99 83 81 60 47 200 MB DIV 91 85 80 117 125 135 107 121 84 51 51 32 4 13 21 16 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -6 -8 -7 -6 -8 3 0 3 4 0 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 701 709 725 748 775 900 934 974 1033 1128 1199 1278 1354 1456 1537 1601 1626 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.6 21.8 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.6 109.5 111.8 114.2 116.6 118.9 121.4 123.8 125.8 127.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 21 22 40 19 24 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 28. 28. 27. 25. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 21. 27. 32. 34. 27. 19. 14. 11. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 43. 53. 63. 67. 68. 65. 54. 43. 35. 30. 25. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 106.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 ELEVEN 09/05/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 11.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 45.1% 28.8% 18.5% 12.6% 41.6% 61.8% 59.4% Logistic: 5.0% 42.5% 19.2% 13.3% 9.0% 31.3% 52.3% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 19.7% 13.4% 5.0% 1.4% 25.1% 24.9% 5.3% Consensus: 6.3% 35.8% 20.5% 12.3% 7.6% 32.7% 46.3% 26.3% DTOPS: 9.0% 43.0% 23.0% 15.0% 8.0% 39.0% 48.0% 59.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 ELEVEN 09/05/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##