* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 48 56 68 75 82 85 90 96 104 104 113 113 116 113 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 48 56 68 75 82 85 90 96 104 104 113 113 116 113 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 57 66 76 86 96 108 114 119 121 121 118 115 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 13 9 6 5 13 8 12 6 14 7 13 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 1 6 8 0 2 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 60 55 52 60 55 55 334 282 295 274 294 301 289 318 296 311 273 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 160 153 151 154 159 160 159 163 163 166 169 166 165 162 161 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -49.7 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 64 64 64 66 69 68 70 69 68 64 63 60 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 21 24 24 26 27 30 34 39 38 44 45 48 49 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 47 42 49 46 46 50 37 34 37 46 43 62 55 88 100 200 MB DIV 34 67 91 116 86 95 38 40 43 69 36 29 34 48 57 65 50 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -8 -15 -11 -15 -16 -11 -7 -5 6 10 8 10 LAND (KM) 1563 1481 1407 1344 1295 1197 1129 881 719 560 352 319 328 417 527 648 710 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 14 13 11 9 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 35 35 33 44 53 56 70 49 72 58 81 78 80 65 61 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 50. 51. 48. 47. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 17. 24. 30. 27. 34. 35. 37. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 26. 38. 45. 52. 55. 60. 66. 74. 74. 83. 83. 86. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 39.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 31.3% 15.0% 9.4% 7.2% 12.1% 15.2% 31.1% Logistic: 7.4% 30.3% 17.5% 6.2% 3.0% 10.2% 10.0% 20.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 18.9% 8.2% 0.7% 0.3% 5.8% 33.7% 19.4% Consensus: 4.6% 26.8% 13.6% 5.5% 3.5% 9.4% 19.7% 23.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 49.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 09/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/05/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 48 56 68 75 82 85 90 96 104 104 113 113 116 113 18HR AGO 30 29 35 43 51 63 70 77 80 85 91 99 99 108 108 111 108 12HR AGO 30 27 26 34 42 54 61 68 71 76 82 90 90 99 99 102 99 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 28 40 47 54 57 62 68 76 76 85 85 88 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT