* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 38 44 50 52 54 55 55 56 59 64 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 38 44 50 52 54 55 55 56 59 64 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 35 41 46 48 48 49 52 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 11 9 9 15 9 1 6 12 18 23 18 20 22 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 2 -1 -3 3 1 4 -2 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 59 68 60 47 74 116 202 253 246 237 254 261 259 270 293 287 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.0 27.3 27.8 27.4 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 143 147 146 134 126 130 135 129 132 129 125 121 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 79 81 78 77 77 74 74 71 66 64 59 57 55 52 51 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 11 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 41 44 50 47 63 47 36 3 0 -15 -27 -34 -50 -43 -44 200 MB DIV 84 70 58 70 101 64 8 -5 -8 27 16 7 11 19 35 21 13 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -4 -9 -6 5 0 9 3 9 3 2 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 293 321 328 318 315 392 499 735 1042 1248 1409 1496 1553 1547 1509 1439 1327 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.9 12.2 14.0 15.8 17.7 19.5 21.2 22.5 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.2 20.4 22.1 24.3 26.8 28.9 30.6 31.4 31.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 6 7 11 13 15 15 13 9 6 6 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 13 15 19 9 3 8 18 10 17 22 10 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 35. 42. 48. 51. 53. 53. 52. 52. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 36. 39. 44. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.7 17.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 32.2% 14.3% 4.7% 3.8% 9.3% 11.2% 32.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 7.5% Consensus: 1.1% 11.8% 4.9% 1.6% 1.3% 3.2% 3.9% 13.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/05/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 31 38 44 50 52 54 55 55 56 59 64 72 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 29 36 42 48 50 52 53 53 54 57 62 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 24 31 37 43 45 47 48 48 49 52 57 65 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT