* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/05/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 60 68 77 92 104 110 112 109 100 87 78 69 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 45 52 60 68 77 92 104 110 112 109 100 87 78 69 65 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 68 77 95 112 119 113 98 80 66 56 48 43 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 9 9 8 11 11 2 3 2 4 1 3 2 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -5 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 1 1 8 11 10 SHEAR DIR 69 57 45 40 60 30 40 14 78 85 102 163 13 176 217 239 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.3 26.7 26.0 24.3 24.1 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 160 160 157 151 148 132 125 107 104 87 87 88 90 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 81 81 83 83 84 83 85 81 73 72 69 67 59 53 50 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 19 20 20 22 26 32 36 39 40 37 33 30 26 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 53 67 77 89 118 129 121 127 112 118 100 84 65 57 48 200 MB DIV 91 97 126 116 149 138 126 116 89 61 23 4 5 7 8 -12 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -7 -7 -9 -9 -5 0 9 0 8 0 6 2 7 1 LAND (KM) 713 737 756 789 838 921 941 990 1036 1117 1217 1333 1475 1550 1610 1659 1708 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.0 17.3 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.9 108.6 109.7 110.7 112.9 115.2 117.4 119.6 122.0 124.5 126.7 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 20 25 40 14 31 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 16. 13. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 16. 25. 32. 33. 29. 22. 16. 11. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 32. 47. 59. 65. 67. 64. 55. 42. 33. 24. 20. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/05/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 13.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 53.2% 42.8% 34.0% 17.7% 60.3% 68.4% 56.2% Logistic: 5.3% 30.8% 14.7% 8.8% 5.0% 18.4% 38.9% 8.0% Bayesian: 22.5% 24.0% 24.6% 8.7% 1.8% 12.6% 10.3% 0.8% Consensus: 14.5% 36.0% 27.3% 17.2% 8.2% 30.4% 39.2% 21.7% DTOPS: 32.0% 65.0% 52.0% 43.0% 24.0% 63.0% 62.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/05/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##