* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 28 30 38 43 50 51 53 55 57 58 58 59 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 28 30 38 43 50 51 53 55 57 58 58 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 34 37 40 41 44 46 48 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 14 12 9 6 14 17 16 16 13 20 19 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 1 1 -2 0 -2 0 -4 0 0 -2 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 39 31 55 65 78 74 130 194 235 259 259 268 242 250 241 240 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.2 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 146 145 139 128 137 135 129 130 131 137 137 136 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 63 62 62 64 68 68 67 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 9 11 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 56 51 52 57 66 75 47 40 23 17 4 3 -11 -11 -13 -9 200 MB DIV 76 57 80 100 92 48 -6 -24 -5 10 0 19 66 49 35 49 48 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -10 -13 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 312 326 343 361 411 532 727 1016 1329 1578 1767 1937 2081 2180 2264 2312 2336 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.5 22.2 24.3 26.9 29.6 32.0 34.0 35.7 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 15 14 12 10 10 8 7 7 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 15 16 17 12 4 15 10 20 19 12 24 29 16 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 42. 48. 51. 53. 54. 53. 53. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -12. -13. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 18. 23. 30. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 38. 39. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 18.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 38.2% 17.9% 6.3% 5.0% 15.8% 16.6% 36.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 12.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 1.6% 5.5% Consensus: 2.3% 16.9% 6.8% 2.2% 1.7% 6.0% 6.1% 13.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/05/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 28 30 38 43 50 51 53 55 57 58 58 59 62 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 25 27 35 40 47 48 50 52 54 55 55 56 59 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 22 30 35 42 43 45 47 49 50 50 51 54 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT