* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/05/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 73 83 93 106 115 117 114 103 92 80 70 63 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 55 64 73 83 93 106 115 117 114 103 92 80 70 63 58 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 65 74 83 93 111 124 125 109 92 75 63 52 46 42 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 10 10 9 9 8 5 2 3 2 4 4 6 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -7 -3 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 0 2 -1 7 6 9 8 SHEAR DIR 47 50 55 63 35 24 4 62 64 53 104 149 307 231 260 282 279 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.0 26.3 25.2 24.6 22.8 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 162 160 154 152 146 128 116 110 91 88 90 91 97 100 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 86 86 84 83 76 71 65 62 56 51 50 44 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 26 28 35 38 40 37 35 31 27 24 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 54 68 79 107 131 139 141 140 121 123 97 97 62 49 31 200 MB DIV 105 127 110 139 153 140 151 86 37 21 16 11 6 -17 -7 -27 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -7 -10 -12 -4 -4 6 1 0 7 3 6 3 5 1 LAND (KM) 796 817 837 874 926 978 1000 1067 1173 1236 1331 1461 1574 1622 1650 1708 1781 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.7 20.1 21.5 22.7 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.8 109.5 110.6 111.7 114.3 116.5 118.9 121.4 123.8 126.2 128.4 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 24 36 22 19 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. 7. 3. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 14. 23. 28. 24. 20. 14. 9. 5. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 38. 51. 60. 62. 59. 48. 37. 25. 15. 8. 3. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.7 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/05/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 20.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 13.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -22.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 16.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 18.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 13.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 89% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.0% 88.4% 86.1% 78.5% 51.7% 89.0% 72.1% 51.2% Logistic: 20.9% 59.8% 32.1% 26.1% 20.3% 34.5% 40.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 54.5% 70.1% 79.8% 62.3% 24.3% 39.9% 8.0% 0.1% Consensus: 41.8% 72.8% 66.0% 55.6% 32.1% 54.5% 40.0% 19.1% DTOPS: 52.0% 79.0% 76.0% 60.0% 37.0% 81.0% 53.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/05/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##