* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 37 43 47 50 52 53 55 52 50 48 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 27 30 37 43 47 50 52 53 55 52 50 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 29 33 35 36 37 39 40 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 14 11 4 4 14 19 13 18 15 18 24 29 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 2 1 1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 46 66 79 74 108 209 244 243 258 255 258 229 221 235 228 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.0 27.5 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 148 146 140 126 132 136 129 131 131 138 137 135 134 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 75 72 68 62 60 58 58 62 65 66 69 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 69 67 65 79 51 36 26 14 18 11 13 0 1 -7 5 200 MB DIV 51 88 101 102 76 23 -12 -11 11 4 34 32 58 52 49 40 35 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -10 -11 -10 9 0 4 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 271 279 314 380 441 641 935 1262 1500 1724 1905 2081 2200 2287 2314 2325 2285 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.9 16.4 17.9 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.3 23.5 26.1 28.9 31.3 33.6 35.4 37.1 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 13 14 15 15 13 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 18 20 15 3 9 12 12 20 11 24 28 18 15 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 24. 32. 40. 45. 48. 50. 50. 49. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 32. 30. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 18.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 38.1% 17.2% 4.7% 3.6% 14.0% 17.7% 33.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 3.7% 5.4% Consensus: 2.7% 15.8% 6.4% 1.6% 1.2% 5.5% 7.1% 12.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/06/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 27 30 37 43 47 50 52 53 55 52 50 48 48 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 24 27 34 40 44 47 49 50 52 49 47 45 45 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 22 29 35 39 42 44 45 47 44 42 40 40 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT