* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/06/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 69 80 92 101 118 125 123 113 99 84 72 61 53 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 60 69 80 92 101 118 125 123 113 99 84 72 61 53 49 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 60 69 78 87 97 117 128 121 103 82 67 56 48 43 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 8 10 7 9 8 11 6 5 4 5 7 10 11 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -4 4 12 11 15 11 SHEAR DIR 51 68 61 35 27 36 52 68 59 61 112 276 278 241 230 241 222 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.4 27.0 26.0 24.2 24.0 22.5 22.8 23.2 23.7 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 157 152 150 135 125 106 103 88 90 93 99 101 102 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -50.4 -49.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -51.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 84 86 86 87 86 83 76 73 67 61 56 52 46 40 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 26 29 29 36 39 41 40 37 34 30 27 24 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 65 69 81 113 129 137 136 118 120 97 94 70 57 43 49 200 MB DIV 126 115 145 162 156 131 96 27 77 26 29 4 4 -8 -20 -17 6 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -13 -10 -11 -3 -1 2 -6 6 3 7 3 9 3 7 LAND (KM) 783 783 800 865 929 942 1012 1090 1146 1234 1374 1527 1545 1612 1701 1843 1774 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.9 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.3 112.5 114.9 117.4 119.8 122.4 124.8 127.1 129.3 131.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 12 10 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 32 39 14 30 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 6. 11. 17. 25. 25. 22. 16. 11. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 26. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 20. 32. 41. 58. 65. 63. 53. 39. 24. 12. 1. -7. -11. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.0 108.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 19.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 16.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 14.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -23.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 18.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 19.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 14.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 15.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 76% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.8% 89.6% 87.9% 83.1% 63.1% 76.0% 61.1% 21.7% Logistic: 21.4% 65.5% 34.6% 31.5% 22.6% 39.8% 31.9% 2.5% Bayesian: 24.1% 42.2% 58.5% 37.8% 6.8% 39.3% 9.5% 0.2% Consensus: 33.8% 65.8% 60.3% 50.8% 30.9% 51.7% 34.2% 8.1% DTOPS: 66.0% 86.0% 88.0% 66.0% 40.0% 87.0% 47.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##