* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 77 84 93 95 98 101 98 104 105 108 110 112 109 112 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 77 84 93 95 98 101 98 104 105 108 110 112 109 112 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 71 76 82 92 102 110 116 121 124 125 126 125 121 118 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 13 7 6 9 9 13 11 12 11 13 13 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 2 0 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -3 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 65 57 53 60 53 356 266 283 261 297 275 299 293 309 293 299 286 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 154 160 160 162 163 161 163 168 167 165 163 164 158 153 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -49.8 -49.2 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 61 63 64 64 65 67 64 63 59 57 56 57 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 22 23 24 24 27 30 31 37 38 41 43 47 47 51 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 44 49 50 49 39 33 35 33 45 50 63 67 85 110 116 200 MB DIV 85 67 72 59 28 1 1 47 43 24 20 17 22 50 37 43 53 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -6 -8 -11 -11 -13 -6 -1 -5 0 0 2 2 11 15 LAND (KM) 1309 1270 1229 1191 1169 936 749 579 388 295 305 350 451 500 532 564 601 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1 21.9 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.1 46.2 47.4 48.7 51.2 53.7 56.3 58.4 60.6 62.8 64.6 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 13 13 13 14 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 57 60 51 54 66 50 73 54 75 71 81 67 76 53 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. 29. 25. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 19. 19. 22. 24. 29. 27. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 17. 12. 6. -0. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 29. 38. 40. 43. 46. 43. 49. 50. 53. 55. 57. 54. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.5 44.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 52.8% 38.4% 23.6% 14.5% 37.4% 37.3% 38.9% Logistic: 18.5% 23.5% 16.0% 6.6% 2.2% 9.1% 11.6% 9.9% Bayesian: 18.7% 39.6% 48.1% 6.9% 6.6% 35.5% 11.4% 3.1% Consensus: 18.6% 38.6% 34.2% 12.4% 7.8% 27.3% 20.1% 17.3% DTOPS: 27.0% 46.0% 20.0% 20.0% 6.0% 14.0% 65.0% 84.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/06/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 14( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 8( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 71 77 84 93 95 98 101 98 104 105 108 110 112 109 112 18HR AGO 55 54 62 68 75 84 86 89 92 89 95 96 99 101 103 100 103 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 64 73 75 78 81 78 84 85 88 90 92 89 92 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 61 63 66 69 66 72 73 76 78 80 77 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT