* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 24 25 33 37 46 51 54 54 56 56 57 61 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 24 25 33 37 46 51 54 54 56 56 57 61 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 27 31 35 37 38 39 40 42 46 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 11 9 10 3 6 16 18 18 18 16 25 23 27 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 3 1 -3 0 -4 -2 -4 0 0 -2 2 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 35 47 63 75 80 138 212 241 254 245 244 226 212 196 202 213 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 139 133 127 132 133 127 131 137 139 140 136 135 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 70 70 68 62 60 58 60 64 68 68 68 70 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 11 9 12 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 68 69 69 70 80 70 50 44 31 34 23 29 23 42 50 54 57 200 MB DIV 56 72 97 63 68 16 -17 10 28 20 47 48 37 53 66 57 61 700-850 TADV -7 -14 -11 -2 3 1 3 5 0 2 -1 0 2 6 9 17 13 LAND (KM) 264 298 367 419 504 758 1081 1373 1625 1865 2091 2279 2355 2302 2320 2413 2356 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.0 21.1 22.0 23.2 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.9 19.5 20.2 21.2 22.2 24.5 27.3 30.0 32.6 35.0 37.2 39.0 40.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 15 15 14 13 11 11 9 7 6 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 21 15 8 4 10 11 17 11 24 24 24 16 15 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 44. 46. 48. 48. 47. 47. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. -3. -1. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -2. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 13. 17. 26. 31. 34. 34. 36. 36. 37. 41. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 18.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 31.5% 15.3% 5.4% 3.8% 14.6% 17.3% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 4.6% 3.0% 5.2% Consensus: 2.6% 14.7% 5.9% 1.9% 1.3% 6.4% 6.8% 8.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/06/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 24 25 33 37 46 51 54 54 56 56 57 61 63 63 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 30 34 43 48 51 51 53 53 54 58 60 60 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 25 29 38 43 46 46 48 48 49 53 55 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT