* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/06/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 88 101 113 121 133 133 127 112 96 80 66 56 47 42 36 31 V (KT) LAND 75 88 101 113 121 133 133 127 112 96 80 66 56 47 42 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 75 88 101 112 121 131 132 115 95 77 63 51 44 39 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 7 10 12 14 13 10 4 3 5 6 12 15 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 9 11 13 14 4 SHEAR DIR 49 60 35 40 62 39 54 41 72 63 203 259 244 247 226 229 233 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 26.3 25.4 24.6 23.0 22.6 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 156 153 148 128 118 110 92 88 91 96 100 101 100 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 86 85 84 80 75 68 65 59 54 49 43 34 25 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 29 31 31 36 38 41 39 36 32 28 26 23 20 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 47 64 70 82 99 123 135 137 132 121 101 74 79 57 48 36 42 200 MB DIV 129 154 159 156 107 99 33 61 32 16 10 5 -5 -2 -25 3 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -12 -11 -11 -5 -3 0 0 -3 6 6 3 6 5 8 1 LAND (KM) 797 828 879 952 956 1011 1078 1171 1243 1320 1438 1526 1582 1648 1719 1838 1798 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 16.0 17.4 18.6 20.0 21.4 22.6 23.6 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.2 111.3 112.6 113.8 116.3 118.8 121.3 123.8 126.0 128.1 130.1 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 32 42 35 17 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 81.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 15. 23. 22. 18. 12. 7. 3. -1. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 26. 38. 46. 58. 58. 52. 37. 21. 5. -9. -19. -28. -33. -39. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.3 109.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 15.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 22.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 19.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -23.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 19.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 15.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 16.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 6.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 90% is 14.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 7.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 94% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 15.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 17.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 65% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 90.3% 98.7% 93.5% 92.9% 73.5% 65.0% 28.7% 8.9% Logistic: 64.2% 82.8% 61.7% 60.7% 52.7% 42.1% 21.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 73.3% 63.2% 77.3% 61.1% 40.9% 22.6% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 76.0% 81.6% 77.5% 71.6% 55.7% 43.2% 17.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 92.0% 93.0% 96.0% 87.0% 70.0% 82.0% 13.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##