* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 76 80 85 88 92 95 95 100 103 110 110 110 110 106 V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 76 80 85 88 92 95 95 100 103 110 110 110 110 106 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 74 78 86 97 107 113 117 119 120 121 124 123 117 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 9 9 7 11 9 15 10 13 8 13 9 16 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 3 2 1 2 0 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 5 6 SHEAR DIR 54 47 55 44 22 317 288 268 286 288 297 315 296 309 291 296 261 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 160 161 163 167 168 166 168 167 165 162 162 160 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.1 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 63 63 63 63 66 66 66 64 60 57 59 58 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 24 24 23 25 28 31 32 36 37 43 45 49 51 51 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 46 46 49 43 33 30 24 29 30 47 47 71 81 114 117 200 MB DIV 74 77 50 25 -5 0 23 55 34 37 27 11 37 69 50 69 70 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -9 -9 -11 -10 -13 -12 -9 -3 -2 0 -1 2 5 11 19 LAND (KM) 1270 1225 1193 1171 1058 851 692 494 352 318 327 396 494 534 546 594 661 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.3 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.3 47.4 48.6 49.9 52.3 54.8 57.2 59.2 61.2 63.2 64.8 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 59 51 53 57 71 55 72 64 81 73 74 63 69 51 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. 20. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 13. 20. 22. 26. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 35. 40. 43. 50. 50. 50. 50. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.9 45.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 47.0% 33.3% 22.6% 14.1% 27.8% 22.6% 29.4% Logistic: 12.1% 20.8% 13.5% 9.3% 4.8% 12.0% 11.7% 10.8% Bayesian: 8.1% 56.6% 37.5% 5.9% 10.2% 30.4% 33.5% 2.5% Consensus: 11.9% 41.4% 28.1% 12.6% 9.7% 23.4% 22.6% 14.2% DTOPS: 20.0% 18.0% 7.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 42.0% 68.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/06/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 7( 11) 10( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 70 76 80 85 88 92 95 95 100 103 110 110 110 110 106 18HR AGO 60 59 63 69 73 78 81 85 88 88 93 96 103 103 103 103 99 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 66 71 74 78 81 81 86 89 96 96 96 96 92 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 59 62 66 69 69 74 77 84 84 84 84 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT