* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 59 60 69 73 76 75 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 59 60 69 73 76 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 31 34 39 45 51 55 57 60 67 73 74 72 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 14 13 9 3 3 10 15 15 11 15 16 18 27 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 5 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 56 69 82 81 106 111 241 253 257 259 259 227 229 227 218 233 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 147 144 139 147 141 135 134 129 137 141 137 138 136 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 72 71 67 63 62 60 62 64 63 60 59 66 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 14 17 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 73 82 92 70 53 40 21 17 5 -5 -10 -6 35 28 21 200 MB DIV 66 73 57 22 12 -29 -10 14 0 37 39 69 53 89 49 31 7 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -2 0 10 4 6 4 5 5 6 8 9 9 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 423 507 573 621 696 931 1224 1498 1710 1896 2072 2186 2256 2325 2163 1976 1766 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.7 15.1 16.7 18.3 19.8 21.2 22.8 24.7 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.9 26.2 28.8 31.1 33.4 35.3 37.0 38.0 38.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 13 12 11 11 9 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 15 9 21 13 15 23 10 23 20 13 19 16 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 30. 37. 42. 44. 45. 44. 42. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -7. -3. 1. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 44. 48. 51. 50. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 20.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.2% 11.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 30.9% 17.2% 9.5% 6.6% 19.7% 25.1% 37.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 19.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.3% 5.8% 14.5% 14.0% Consensus: 3.3% 22.5% 10.7% 5.6% 2.3% 8.5% 17.6% 17.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/06/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 30 32 37 42 49 53 56 59 60 69 73 76 75 77 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 38 45 49 52 55 56 65 69 72 71 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 34 41 45 48 51 52 61 65 68 67 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 34 38 41 44 45 54 58 61 60 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT