* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 103 115 122 129 132 129 117 102 85 69 56 47 40 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 90 103 115 122 129 132 129 117 102 85 69 56 47 40 35 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 90 104 114 122 125 126 117 100 84 69 55 45 39 35 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 10 14 15 12 13 5 2 2 3 7 9 14 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 0 1 0 0 1 8 17 12 10 SHEAR DIR 101 15 28 47 44 51 58 68 92 107 258 227 252 222 240 240 247 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 26.5 26.2 24.5 23.9 22.3 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 154 151 150 130 127 109 102 85 90 93 96 95 98 101 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 84 84 79 75 74 70 66 61 56 49 42 33 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 32 32 36 38 41 40 38 34 30 26 24 22 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 73 90 95 113 115 118 103 92 63 43 22 22 11 13 -1 200 MB DIV 152 140 137 94 85 52 36 58 22 29 5 9 7 -9 -9 -1 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -13 -12 -11 -5 -6 -2 -2 1 5 7 7 9 6 4 0 LAND (KM) 809 863 926 926 948 1020 1105 1195 1277 1385 1503 1520 1542 1626 1744 1860 1825 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.2 112.4 113.7 115.0 117.4 120.0 122.4 124.9 127.1 129.0 130.6 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 36 28 13 30 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -44. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 7. 8. 14. 16. 15. 9. 4. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 25. 32. 39. 42. 39. 27. 12. -5. -21. -34. -43. -50. -55. -59. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.9 110.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.26 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 14.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -13.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 10.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 9.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 80% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 80.1% 67.0% 48.4% 42.3% 34.2% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 74.2% 77.5% 51.0% 50.6% 36.6% 20.3% 7.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 73.5% 27.6% 47.2% 28.4% 13.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 75.9% 57.3% 48.9% 40.5% 28.0% 14.9% 2.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 94.0% 88.0% 87.0% 73.0% 46.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##