* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 80 85 92 94 95 100 101 107 108 111 109 107 107 106 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 80 85 92 94 95 100 101 107 108 111 109 107 107 106 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 77 82 92 103 111 115 116 114 115 116 115 113 111 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 8 5 9 11 16 13 14 15 14 14 15 10 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 0 0 3 0 1 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 53 50 39 5 2 262 275 262 280 283 299 286 299 294 304 284 280 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 161 162 165 167 169 168 165 167 163 163 160 154 150 142 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.4 -49.2 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 62 61 62 63 63 62 63 59 57 56 55 59 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 23 23 25 26 27 31 33 38 38 41 43 46 48 52 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 40 44 40 33 22 21 19 26 24 41 52 69 88 88 117 200 MB DIV 52 35 8 -12 -4 10 76 14 12 13 10 29 69 51 44 74 87 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -9 -10 -10 -9 -11 -11 -1 -6 0 0 3 2 2 13 20 LAND (KM) 1268 1243 1232 1117 1004 802 655 464 369 364 387 451 550 573 609 646 662 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.1 48.2 49.4 50.7 53.3 55.6 57.8 60.1 61.9 63.3 64.7 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 8 7 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 48 48 58 63 54 68 63 81 82 84 72 65 62 41 28 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 18. 14. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 9. 16. 15. 19. 20. 24. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 29. 30. 35. 36. 42. 43. 46. 44. 42. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 46.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 39.1% 25.4% 21.4% 14.4% 22.0% 19.9% 21.9% Logistic: 9.5% 16.5% 10.9% 5.9% 3.4% 9.4% 9.8% 5.9% Bayesian: 9.5% 50.0% 29.9% 3.7% 7.1% 27.2% 24.5% 1.5% Consensus: 10.6% 35.2% 22.1% 10.3% 8.3% 19.5% 18.1% 9.8% DTOPS: 12.0% 22.0% 9.0% 10.0% 6.0% 36.0% 88.0% 58.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/06/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 10( 16) 13( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 75 80 85 92 94 95 100 101 107 108 111 109 107 107 106 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 79 86 88 89 94 95 101 102 105 103 101 101 100 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 71 78 80 81 86 87 93 94 97 95 93 93 92 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 67 69 70 75 76 82 83 86 84 82 82 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT