* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 44 51 57 65 68 73 78 85 88 89 97 97 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 44 51 57 65 68 73 78 85 88 89 97 97 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 52 58 63 68 74 80 82 83 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 5 7 6 13 12 12 16 17 19 19 17 16 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 0 0 -3 0 3 0 2 -2 4 -4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 69 100 94 118 113 186 237 262 246 248 213 191 178 194 220 241 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.3 28.4 29.0 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.2 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 136 142 145 141 138 132 128 143 151 156 150 141 139 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 66 63 59 59 58 61 65 67 69 69 74 69 63 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 12 12 15 18 22 25 26 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 89 95 100 109 100 77 71 47 45 31 33 26 28 27 31 22 19 200 MB DIV 70 47 29 22 18 -24 2 10 56 23 57 34 47 45 19 22 5 700-850 TADV -10 -1 0 8 6 5 6 2 5 5 6 10 11 4 6 8 3 LAND (KM) 499 592 699 824 954 1254 1574 1832 2066 2267 2288 2256 2276 2303 2089 1906 1728 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 18.0 19.3 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.3 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.7 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.4 29.1 31.9 34.5 36.9 38.9 40.4 41.2 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 14 14 12 10 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 8 11 23 12 25 18 17 33 33 29 22 26 21 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 39. 42. 44. 43. 41. 39. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 3. 8. 10. 12. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 26. 32. 40. 43. 48. 53. 60. 63. 64. 72. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 21.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 23.0% 12.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 41.5% 27.1% 17.6% 11.6% 30.1% 25.1% 39.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 42.3% 10.1% 1.4% 0.7% 6.7% 3.1% 2.7% Consensus: 5.7% 35.6% 16.6% 9.0% 4.1% 12.3% 14.0% 13.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/06/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 36 39 44 51 57 65 68 73 78 85 88 89 97 97 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 35 40 47 53 61 64 69 74 81 84 85 93 93 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 34 41 47 55 58 63 68 75 78 79 87 87 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 36 44 47 52 57 64 67 68 76 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT