* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 127 132 134 130 119 110 96 83 70 57 46 40 34 26 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 127 132 134 130 119 110 96 83 70 57 46 40 34 26 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 127 132 131 128 117 100 86 70 57 46 39 34 29 23 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 14 16 10 14 9 5 1 5 10 9 20 22 31 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 0 1 2 -1 4 11 13 13 9 10 SHEAR DIR 17 25 48 39 33 61 31 58 53 198 248 254 252 218 227 228 246 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 27.7 26.2 25.3 24.4 22.9 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 154 151 151 143 127 117 107 91 89 92 96 95 98 102 103 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 84 84 80 77 72 71 66 58 53 44 33 26 20 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 32 35 36 37 40 37 34 30 27 23 20 18 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 89 96 110 119 121 121 100 84 58 55 37 29 16 5 -2 200 MB DIV 136 132 88 71 68 13 67 32 13 9 11 -3 -16 -29 -12 0 -4 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -12 -8 -8 -6 -8 0 -3 6 9 8 7 1 5 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 841 914 916 940 986 1060 1181 1267 1335 1448 1520 1560 1633 1737 1868 1774 1631 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.6 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.6 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.4 113.6 115.0 116.3 118.8 121.5 124.1 126.1 128.1 130.0 132.0 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 36 30 13 18 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -23. -33. -43. -52. -60. -67. -72. -74. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -5. -1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 12. 7. 1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 10. 9. 5. -0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 17. 19. 15. 4. -5. -19. -32. -45. -57. -69. -75. -81. -89. -94. -101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 111.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 64.1% 28.2% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.6% 53.5% 20.6% 22.0% 15.8% 4.5% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 29.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.0% 27.5% 13.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 66.0% 39.0% 23.0% 10.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##