* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/07/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 86 89 92 94 96 101 101 107 110 113 111 106 106 105 V (KT) LAND 70 76 81 86 89 92 94 96 101 101 107 110 113 111 106 106 105 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 80 84 88 96 104 108 110 111 111 112 113 113 112 110 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 8 5 4 14 11 18 12 15 14 17 10 13 11 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 2 4 3 2 -1 -3 -3 -7 -6 -2 0 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 59 44 4 352 285 265 255 279 275 301 319 294 314 298 294 260 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 161 163 167 168 168 167 165 166 162 162 163 155 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -48.7 -48.4 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 62 62 61 64 64 64 62 58 56 58 57 61 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 25 24 24 25 29 33 34 38 40 44 45 46 48 52 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 46 42 42 27 26 16 25 26 40 46 67 69 100 100 121 200 MB DIV 19 11 -4 1 9 32 65 6 35 16 13 62 68 43 33 55 82 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -13 -12 -10 -10 -15 -4 -5 -7 0 0 0 3 8 11 21 LAND (KM) 1258 1234 1126 1017 919 792 589 437 379 380 399 463 520 568 602 644 712 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.3 49.4 50.6 51.9 54.1 56.4 58.5 60.3 62.1 63.7 64.8 65.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 7 5 5 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 59 62 60 57 70 62 85 81 85 69 62 66 39 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 8. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 10. 16. 19. 23. 23. 23. 25. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 31. 31. 37. 40. 43. 41. 36. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.2 47.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 37.9% 25.0% 22.1% 15.6% 18.5% 15.6% 16.6% Logistic: 11.1% 17.8% 13.2% 10.8% 6.1% 11.8% 9.3% 5.0% Bayesian: 10.3% 54.1% 40.4% 10.4% 12.8% 30.6% 7.2% 0.4% Consensus: 12.5% 36.6% 26.2% 14.4% 11.5% 20.3% 10.7% 7.3% DTOPS: 19.0% 25.0% 10.0% 11.0% 6.0% 77.0% 94.0% 65.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/07/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 11( 21) 13( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 76 81 86 89 92 94 96 101 101 107 110 113 111 106 106 105 18HR AGO 70 69 74 79 82 85 87 89 94 94 100 103 106 104 99 99 98 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 74 77 79 81 86 86 92 95 98 96 91 91 90 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 66 68 70 75 75 81 84 87 85 80 80 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT