* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/07/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 44 51 63 70 76 83 96 101 104 104 105 104 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 44 51 63 70 76 83 96 101 104 104 105 104 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 57 66 78 88 89 88 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 4 4 10 13 10 15 15 17 15 18 20 27 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 6 4 0 -1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 118 146 146 227 235 234 240 261 275 260 225 204 184 193 203 249 244 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.4 28.3 28.6 29.2 29.4 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 144 144 141 137 132 130 141 144 153 158 149 144 135 137 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 59 54 56 56 58 61 67 68 68 71 73 68 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 12 12 12 15 15 17 20 26 29 34 35 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 93 103 107 100 84 79 63 56 47 56 62 68 60 74 51 47 29 200 MB DIV 53 46 38 11 -12 -16 13 38 44 36 29 58 74 35 24 28 9 700-850 TADV 0 3 8 11 8 6 4 8 1 3 10 13 19 13 7 5 3 LAND (KM) 611 738 879 1024 1181 1499 1785 2060 2281 2191 2172 2192 2284 2229 1943 1644 1362 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.0 20.1 21.0 21.7 22.7 24.1 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 28.4 31.2 34.0 36.8 39.0 40.8 41.5 41.8 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 15 14 13 10 8 6 9 12 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 14 21 14 16 20 20 34 34 31 28 21 20 11 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 40. 42. 42. 39. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 16. 19. 24. 26. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 26. 38. 45. 51. 58. 71. 76. 79. 79. 80. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 23.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/07/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.8% 10.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 27.0% 14.8% 7.1% 4.8% 18.7% 14.1% 21.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 13.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% Consensus: 3.5% 18.9% 9.5% 4.6% 1.7% 6.8% 9.1% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/07/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 44 51 63 70 76 83 96 101 104 104 105 104 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 40 47 59 66 72 79 92 97 100 100 101 100 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 41 53 60 66 73 86 91 94 94 95 94 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 44 51 57 64 77 82 85 85 86 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT