* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/07/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 145 147 143 134 116 99 81 63 49 37 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 145 147 143 134 116 99 81 63 49 37 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 143 142 135 128 108 90 73 59 47 40 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 15 15 11 10 4 2 2 6 9 17 22 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -3 -5 -2 -2 1 0 0 6 14 16 16 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 43 46 37 42 41 72 86 349 252 232 247 223 231 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.1 26.1 25.8 24.3 23.2 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 150 150 147 126 123 107 95 85 90 94 96 96 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 82 83 80 72 67 61 57 52 46 37 28 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 38 38 40 38 35 30 26 23 21 18 14 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 93 96 107 120 117 128 104 87 60 45 30 23 10 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 90 60 55 34 25 49 9 19 10 7 -18 -7 -20 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -9 -6 -4 -9 0 0 5 6 10 7 3 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 883 875 892 932 993 1090 1190 1283 1383 1456 1474 1531 1635 1742 1816 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.6 19.9 21.2 22.6 23.8 24.6 25.3 25.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.7 115.0 116.3 117.6 120.3 123.0 125.4 127.5 129.2 130.7 132.4 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 9 8 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 18 13 24 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -16. -28. -42. -56. -69. -81. -91. -97. -102. -104. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -12. -6. 0. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 13. 17. 16. 13. 6. -1. -9. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -15. -16. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 12. 8. -1. -19. -36. -54. -72. -86. -98. -109. -117. -122. -129. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.3 112.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.6% 28.3% 6.9% 7.3% 7.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.8% 9.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##