* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 09/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 51 58 64 72 79 87 96 100 101 102 99 96 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 51 58 64 72 79 87 96 100 101 102 99 96 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 46 51 54 59 66 76 85 88 87 83 79 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 3 6 16 16 15 16 17 21 17 19 12 13 8 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 6 0 -1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 -3 6 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 105 151 165 251 251 244 272 265 250 208 205 186 186 202 221 270 238 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 144 143 141 136 132 128 143 149 152 150 140 135 134 127 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 56 56 56 57 59 65 65 64 65 69 65 62 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 13 14 17 17 18 21 24 28 34 37 40 41 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 98 108 99 81 78 70 52 50 57 59 52 65 72 72 62 54 49 200 MB DIV 53 49 28 18 -7 16 23 64 46 50 31 71 44 50 18 39 32 700-850 TADV 0 7 9 6 5 8 5 6 2 8 15 11 8 12 13 5 8 LAND (KM) 690 813 944 1093 1255 1553 1822 2062 2246 2344 2351 2387 2311 2047 1781 1519 1321 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.5 26.2 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.6 29.0 31.7 34.5 36.9 38.7 39.9 40.3 40.5 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 7 8 10 12 13 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 20 18 13 20 17 15 31 31 29 22 16 12 7 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 29. 33. 35. 36. 34. 32. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 27. 29. 31. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 21. 28. 34. 42. 49. 57. 66. 70. 71. 72. 69. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 23.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 09/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 17.7% 11.9% 9.0% 6.8% 11.1% 13.2% 16.8% Logistic: 8.8% 25.9% 15.1% 5.3% 2.6% 17.2% 12.8% 15.7% Bayesian: 4.6% 24.5% 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 5.1% 2.5% 1.3% Consensus: 5.7% 22.7% 12.0% 4.8% 3.2% 11.2% 9.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 09/07/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 40 43 51 58 64 72 79 87 96 100 101 102 99 96 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 46 53 59 67 74 82 91 95 96 97 94 91 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 47 53 61 68 76 85 89 90 91 88 85 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 38 44 52 59 67 76 80 81 82 79 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT