* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 91 98 100 105 107 107 107 109 116 114 114 117 110 110 105 V (KT) LAND 80 86 91 98 100 105 107 107 107 109 116 114 114 117 110 110 105 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 90 95 100 107 111 114 117 119 122 117 116 114 111 106 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 7 8 10 13 8 12 6 16 14 21 17 22 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 5 7 1 1 3 -3 -1 -4 -6 -6 -4 3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 353 11 235 238 261 234 265 235 265 282 297 300 304 316 304 296 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 165 165 166 168 171 170 170 166 156 156 156 154 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -48.5 -47.9 -47.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 60 59 61 62 62 61 59 55 56 56 62 61 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 26 24 27 30 32 33 34 39 39 42 48 48 52 53 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 41 35 26 17 12 19 22 38 45 68 78 110 118 139 151 200 MB DIV 1 -2 0 20 42 51 -34 -13 12 4 33 62 54 36 40 84 84 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -9 -6 -10 -10 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 0 4 13 14 22 LAND (KM) 1126 1027 938 856 792 597 445 383 385 393 427 501 548 570 614 681 833 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.4 50.5 51.7 52.9 54.1 56.3 58.4 60.2 61.6 63.1 64.5 65.7 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 60 58 52 54 68 63 84 88 87 76 60 64 59 33 28 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 16. 16. 19. 25. 25. 29. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 18. 20. 25. 27. 27. 27. 29. 36. 34. 35. 37. 30. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.1 49.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.45 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 36.7% 24.6% 21.0% 13.7% 20.4% 14.7% 16.0% Logistic: 18.3% 20.9% 17.1% 13.5% 7.3% 11.3% 7.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 15.5% 50.4% 40.8% 9.0% 18.2% 17.3% 3.7% 0.1% Consensus: 18.3% 36.0% 27.5% 14.5% 13.0% 16.4% 8.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 81.0% 100.0% 99.0% 94.0% 98.0% 100.0% 86.0% 40.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/07/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 22( 36) 27( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 9( 12) 8( 19) 21( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 86 91 98 100 105 107 107 107 109 116 114 114 117 110 110 105 18HR AGO 80 79 84 91 93 98 100 100 100 102 109 107 107 110 103 103 98 12HR AGO 80 77 76 83 85 90 92 92 92 94 101 99 99 102 95 95 90 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 77 79 79 79 81 88 86 86 89 82 82 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 86 77 71 68 67 69 69 69 71 78 76 76 79 72 72 67 IN 12HR 80 86 91 82 76 72 74 74 74 76 83 81 81 84 77 77 72