* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142023 09/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 40 45 52 60 64 71 78 86 92 97 94 92 88 85 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 40 45 52 60 64 71 78 86 92 97 94 92 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 44 49 54 60 67 74 81 85 82 75 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 12 14 15 18 20 20 21 19 17 15 16 17 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 0 -1 -1 2 0 5 1 1 -1 0 3 -2 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 177 187 206 228 242 272 296 264 246 207 187 198 210 224 265 224 193 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 144 143 134 133 141 139 140 154 145 142 131 124 118 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 2.2 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 53 54 53 58 61 67 63 66 66 69 65 59 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 17 18 20 21 25 29 34 36 41 40 40 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 112 103 93 87 81 68 63 65 76 66 66 58 77 62 50 51 75 200 MB DIV 50 24 9 -1 12 29 73 63 53 34 51 65 47 44 24 38 77 700-850 TADV 7 12 11 10 10 9 12 5 8 13 14 10 8 9 7 5 -2 LAND (KM) 879 1049 1219 1380 1549 1817 2076 2257 2303 2350 2358 2350 2124 1815 1541 1336 1276 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.6 20.6 21.5 22.3 23.5 25.3 28.0 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 31.6 34.4 37.0 38.8 39.9 40.0 39.7 39.2 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 11 8 6 7 12 14 16 15 11 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 16 15 26 21 22 34 30 28 25 19 17 5 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 33. 34. 32. 28. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 20. 23. 28. 26. 24. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 15. 22. 30. 34. 41. 48. 56. 62. 67. 64. 62. 58. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 25.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 FOURTEEN 09/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 18.2% 12.1% 9.2% 7.0% 11.2% 12.9% 15.3% Logistic: 15.2% 24.0% 17.1% 8.0% 3.2% 12.2% 9.5% 9.2% Bayesian: 6.7% 18.5% 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 5.7% 6.3% 0.2% Consensus: 8.9% 20.2% 13.6% 5.9% 3.5% 9.7% 9.6% 8.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 FOURTEEN 09/07/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 40 45 52 60 64 71 78 86 92 97 94 92 88 85 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 40 47 55 59 66 73 81 87 92 89 87 83 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 42 50 54 61 68 76 82 87 84 82 78 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 40 44 51 58 66 72 77 74 72 68 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT