* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 131 125 119 112 97 82 67 51 37 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 131 125 119 112 97 82 67 51 37 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 129 122 112 101 86 70 58 47 40 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 8 10 6 1 1 5 9 11 15 21 31 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 0 1 1 0 3 11 16 17 11 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 37 54 57 45 78 118 349 209 210 236 232 226 224 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 27.7 26.6 25.8 25.1 24.1 23.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 143 131 123 115 104 96 87 90 90 93 93 92 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.3 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 76 76 69 64 61 55 52 48 41 31 23 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 36 36 36 34 31 28 25 22 20 18 14 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 97 103 101 108 116 104 91 63 35 11 3 -14 -12 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 35 15 10 42 91 7 0 25 18 -15 -20 -20 -20 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -5 -2 -4 -7 2 0 5 3 9 7 6 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 856 904 961 998 1056 1152 1248 1341 1420 1419 1441 1515 1664 1766 1846 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.9 24.0 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.4 117.8 119.1 120.4 123.0 125.3 127.2 128.9 130.1 131.1 132.5 134.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 6 8 8 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 26 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -24. -38. -53. -68. -81. -93. -102. -108. -112. -114. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -4. 2. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -23. -38. -53. -68. -84. -98. -109. -117. -123. -128. -133. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##