* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142023 09/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 49 53 60 64 71 79 86 90 96 95 92 90 91 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 49 53 60 64 71 79 86 90 96 95 92 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 53 57 61 67 73 79 85 83 78 78 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 13 11 19 16 22 20 17 20 23 21 8 8 11 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 5 3 -1 -3 -1 2 -2 -5 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 187 210 212 239 265 291 284 260 235 205 186 187 178 229 314 267 199 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 143 143 134 138 141 142 141 142 143 143 136 137 135 128 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 53 52 56 58 64 64 61 61 63 56 58 60 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 18 20 18 21 23 27 31 35 36 41 42 40 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 103 95 94 96 83 67 69 69 78 57 81 84 79 83 78 76 90 200 MB DIV 26 17 16 1 1 52 67 29 46 45 38 18 22 25 25 43 39 700-850 TADV 9 9 10 11 7 8 7 4 9 8 8 5 15 9 3 11 1 LAND (KM) 1095 1266 1436 1603 1766 2022 2230 2270 2212 2214 2286 2076 1851 1687 1575 1419 1203 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.8 20.9 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.7 29.8 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.6 29.1 30.7 32.2 33.7 36.4 38.5 40.2 41.5 42.1 42.3 42.8 43.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 15 31 24 27 32 31 22 16 32 24 10 12 11 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. 22. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 21. 27. 27. 23. 21. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 25. 29. 36. 44. 51. 55. 61. 60. 57. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.5 27.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 FOURTEEN 09/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.5% 10.5% 8.5% 6.0% 10.4% 11.7% 13.1% Logistic: 4.2% 8.9% 6.2% 3.7% 1.1% 4.5% 2.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.9% 6.3% 4.1% 2.4% 5.3% 5.0% 5.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 FOURTEEN 09/07/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 49 53 60 64 71 79 86 90 96 95 92 90 91 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 45 49 56 60 67 75 82 86 92 91 88 86 87 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 39 43 50 54 61 69 76 80 86 85 82 80 81 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 34 41 45 52 60 67 71 77 76 73 71 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT