* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 144 141 134 129 117 117 120 123 124 121 123 130 124 117 115 106 V (KT) LAND 135 144 141 134 129 117 117 120 123 124 121 123 130 124 117 115 106 V (KT) LGEM 135 145 144 137 130 121 117 117 122 124 122 120 121 120 115 109 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 11 14 10 14 12 8 10 5 16 12 14 6 10 12 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 3 2 5 3 -2 -2 -5 -7 -3 -1 2 0 -7 2 SHEAR DIR 252 240 258 242 234 248 240 272 282 289 306 305 332 292 297 267 243 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.1 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 164 164 166 167 171 170 170 170 158 156 156 155 152 151 118 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -48.4 -48.0 -47.9 -47.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 61 61 61 62 62 59 58 58 57 60 65 65 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 26 24 27 28 31 33 35 39 39 42 46 48 50 51 50 850 MB ENV VOR 42 33 19 16 14 8 15 26 38 51 71 76 101 104 115 113 125 200 MB DIV 6 17 46 57 40 -15 8 15 4 32 60 47 26 45 65 98 112 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -9 -8 -10 -6 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 3 10 22 23 18 LAND (KM) 923 849 792 705 610 470 419 417 442 456 508 571 607 654 752 885 780 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.0 54.1 55.1 56.2 58.1 59.7 61.1 62.4 63.6 64.9 65.9 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 60 52 54 62 66 62 79 90 89 86 65 61 62 52 48 30 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 0. -5. -13. -23. -32. -41. -48. -50. -55. -58. -65. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -8. -4. 1. 4. 7. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. 0. 4. 4. -1. -6. -8. -4. -7. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 15. 19. 24. 25. 28. 27. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 6. -1. -6. -18. -18. -15. -12. -11. -14. -12. -5. -11. -18. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 17.0 51.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 698.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 35.4% 18.2% 13.4% 9.4% 2.8% 5.6% 3.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.3% 12.0% 4.5% 3.1% 1.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 73.0% 25.0% 23.0% 13.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/08/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 56( 77) 44( 87) 32( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 24( 38) 28( 56) 26( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 144 141 134 129 117 117 120 123 124 121 123 130 124 117 115 106 18HR AGO 135 134 131 124 119 107 107 110 113 114 111 113 120 114 107 105 96 12HR AGO 135 132 131 124 119 107 107 110 113 114 111 113 120 114 107 105 96 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 120 108 108 111 114 115 112 114 121 115 108 106 97 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 104 104 107 110 111 108 110 117 111 104 102 93 IN 6HR 135 144 135 129 126 121 121 124 127 128 125 127 134 128 121 119 110 IN 12HR 135 144 141 132 126 122 122 125 128 129 126 128 135 129 122 120 111