* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 102 97 90 78 66 54 42 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 108 102 97 90 78 66 54 42 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 105 96 88 80 66 55 45 38 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 10 8 9 4 4 5 11 12 11 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -5 -4 -3 0 1 2 5 14 14 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 70 36 40 65 135 250 234 230 245 229 222 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.5 25.8 25.9 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.5 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 130 123 124 115 104 95 86 89 89 91 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 71 69 65 61 58 52 46 39 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 38 37 38 34 32 29 26 23 21 18 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 99 98 91 102 92 74 44 28 11 8 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -3 35 66 72 7 -1 23 5 -22 -8 -1 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -9 -2 3 0 8 5 8 7 5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 967 1006 1066 1111 1159 1250 1321 1378 1379 1424 1494 1604 1734 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.7 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.2 120.6 121.8 123.1 125.4 127.1 128.3 129.6 130.6 131.4 132.4 133.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -22. -34. -48. -60. -70. -80. -88. -93. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -22. -25. -29. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -25. -37. -48. -61. -73. -85. -94. -102. -105. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.0 117.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##