* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 148 143 135 125 115 114 120 122 122 120 124 129 118 113 106 96 V (KT) LAND 145 148 143 135 125 115 114 120 122 122 120 124 129 118 113 106 96 V (KT) LGEM 145 148 142 134 127 119 118 121 125 125 122 125 123 117 113 101 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 15 18 10 6 11 10 11 8 10 10 12 16 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 1 3 4 2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 2 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 244 246 243 236 237 249 253 308 301 324 291 310 302 302 271 254 259 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 27.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 168 169 170 170 170 164 158 156 156 154 153 134 111 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -48.1 -48.1 -47.2 -47.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 60 61 60 62 59 60 58 57 61 64 68 64 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 26 26 24 27 30 34 37 40 41 45 48 48 52 51 48 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 18 17 13 10 22 24 43 56 67 89 93 111 102 133 134 200 MB DIV 21 44 75 58 -4 -1 -10 14 9 60 50 47 19 75 110 146 91 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -10 -7 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1 0 2 11 25 25 25 27 LAND (KM) 841 784 698 604 521 428 405 406 417 461 514 578 591 685 821 930 759 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.8 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.1 55.2 56.2 57.2 59.0 60.4 61.6 63.0 64.2 65.3 66.3 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 54 62 68 64 68 88 89 89 78 62 63 60 41 39 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -17. -29. -41. -51. -60. -62. -67. -71. -78. -86. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -12. -7. -2. 2. 7. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 6. 3. -0. -3. -1. 3. 3. -1. -6. -7. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 2. 7. 10. 15. 16. 21. 25. 23. 28. 24. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. -2. -10. -20. -30. -31. -25. -23. -23. -25. -21. -16. -27. -32. -39. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 17.5 53.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 758.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.2 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/08/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 64( 88) 38( 92) 31( 95) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 39( 70) 27( 78) 44( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 148 143 135 125 115 114 120 122 122 120 124 129 118 113 106 96 18HR AGO 145 144 139 131 121 111 110 116 118 118 116 120 125 114 109 102 92 12HR AGO 145 142 141 133 123 113 112 118 120 120 118 122 127 116 111 104 94 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 125 115 114 120 122 122 120 124 129 118 113 106 96 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 116 115 121 123 123 121 125 130 119 114 107 97 IN 6HR 145 148 139 133 130 123 122 128 130 130 128 132 137 126 121 114 104 IN 12HR 145 148 143 134 128 124 123 129 131 131 129 133 138 127 122 115 105