* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 86 79 75 64 53 42 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 91 86 79 75 64 53 42 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 90 81 75 68 56 48 40 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 8 9 7 5 7 9 12 14 17 20 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -2 -2 0 1 2 9 14 14 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 44 37 76 118 236 238 213 222 224 231 249 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.8 25.8 25.0 24.1 23.7 22.7 22.5 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 123 114 104 100 88 85 87 88 90 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -52.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 72 69 65 60 55 49 46 39 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 35 33 33 29 26 24 21 18 16 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 84 95 88 72 50 27 12 -2 -4 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 23 44 65 47 -5 12 7 -15 -3 -15 -7 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 0 2 1 3 8 6 8 6 3 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 983 1042 1088 1129 1178 1239 1304 1325 1331 1371 1446 1550 1656 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.6 23.9 24.6 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.4 121.7 122.9 124.1 125.9 127.3 128.2 129.1 129.9 130.8 132.1 133.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 7 5 4 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -30. -42. -53. -62. -69. -76. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -28. -30. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -21. -25. -36. -47. -58. -70. -81. -88. -93. -96. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.8 119.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##