* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 130 127 122 118 114 116 122 126 132 141 137 134 122 114 106 V (KT) LAND 135 133 130 127 122 118 114 116 122 126 132 141 137 134 122 114 106 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 127 121 117 112 111 115 121 125 129 128 124 117 108 95 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 17 15 7 6 6 14 5 11 4 11 9 17 24 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 4 4 5 5 -2 -5 -1 -1 1 4 3 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 237 238 232 240 240 230 266 320 306 328 302 305 300 298 261 239 209 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 27.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 168 168 165 166 170 170 168 164 162 157 154 153 134 111 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -49.6 -49.5 -48.7 -48.1 -47.6 -46.7 -46.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 60 59 61 60 60 59 59 59 64 64 65 57 47 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 26 28 27 30 30 33 38 40 43 48 49 52 50 49 49 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 25 16 11 20 21 29 43 62 74 96 101 129 145 157 175 200 MB DIV 44 88 73 0 -33 11 -3 27 24 64 43 47 51 79 114 80 35 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -11 -7 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 1 2 16 19 20 14 -10 LAND (KM) 777 702 602 522 458 397 409 421 419 450 534 568 605 706 846 872 738 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.1 56.2 57.1 58.1 59.6 60.9 62.2 63.3 64.5 65.7 66.7 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 59 65 64 62 70 82 82 84 74 63 65 52 36 29 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -5. -14. -24. -33. -42. -48. -50. -54. -58. -65. -73. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -12. -12. -8. -3. 0. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 2. 1. 4. 4. 8. 15. 17. 21. 28. 28. 31. 28. 25. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -19. -13. -9. -3. 6. 2. -1. -13. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 17.9 54.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 705.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/08/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 43( 70) 34( 80) 32( 87) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 6( 11) 4( 14) 11( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 133 130 127 122 118 114 116 122 126 132 141 137 134 122 114 106 18HR AGO 135 134 131 128 123 119 115 117 123 127 133 142 138 135 123 115 107 12HR AGO 135 132 131 128 123 119 115 117 123 127 133 142 138 135 123 115 107 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 120 116 112 114 120 124 130 139 135 132 120 112 104 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 112 108 110 116 120 126 135 131 128 116 108 100 IN 6HR 135 133 124 118 115 113 109 111 117 121 127 136 132 129 117 109 101 IN 12HR 135 133 130 121 115 111 107 109 115 119 125 134 130 127 115 107 99