* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 42 48 54 62 69 74 82 88 88 87 92 91 90 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 42 48 54 62 69 74 82 88 88 87 92 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 40 44 49 54 61 69 72 73 76 83 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 19 24 23 15 20 23 17 21 21 14 6 13 12 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 -2 -2 10 0 0 -3 2 0 -2 -3 0 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 244 265 288 306 310 264 237 221 203 182 176 185 253 245 222 250 6 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 140 137 141 139 141 138 140 143 137 138 143 144 141 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 0.7 2.2 1.8 2.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 59 60 60 64 60 58 54 54 46 46 47 48 37 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 16 19 21 26 28 31 36 38 37 37 42 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 86 77 64 57 61 55 62 68 72 89 95 86 75 65 79 103 100 200 MB DIV -13 0 -8 30 75 54 41 41 47 31 14 3 -6 6 40 -21 -54 700-850 TADV 11 7 3 7 10 -1 8 5 5 4 5 9 7 5 2 -8 -14 LAND (KM) 1557 1720 1860 1969 2081 2279 2283 2272 2233 2254 2138 1972 1800 1695 1639 1530 1357 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.3 22.7 24.5 26.1 27.6 29.2 30.7 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.8 33.2 34.7 35.8 37.0 39.0 40.3 41.1 42.1 42.6 42.8 43.1 43.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 25 26 27 35 32 22 14 32 25 18 11 15 15 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 23. 20. 18. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 27. 24. 23. 29. 28. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 27. 34. 39. 47. 53. 53. 52. 57. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 31.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 11.1% 7.4% 6.7% 4.0% 8.1% 8.3% 10.9% Logistic: 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 3.2% 3.3% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 42 48 54 62 69 74 82 88 88 87 92 91 90 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 40 46 52 60 67 72 80 86 86 85 90 89 88 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 36 42 48 56 63 68 76 82 82 81 86 85 84 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 41 49 56 61 69 75 75 74 79 78 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT