* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 68 63 57 50 42 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 76 68 63 57 50 42 33 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 75 67 60 54 46 40 34 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 7 5 5 6 12 12 14 19 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 2 3 12 13 11 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 29 54 102 143 241 226 218 236 230 246 253 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 24.9 23.9 23.7 23.5 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 113 102 100 97 84 83 84 85 87 90 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 69 64 60 54 51 43 36 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 32 32 30 26 24 21 19 17 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 82 88 80 71 56 26 11 -7 -10 -25 -11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 31 45 31 10 0 10 4 -15 -12 -14 -19 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 0 5 3 0 6 5 5 6 5 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1052 1095 1144 1173 1210 1271 1320 1314 1346 1395 1453 1564 1717 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.2 21.8 23.2 24.2 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.0 125.0 126.6 127.6 128.5 129.2 130.0 130.9 132.3 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 8 6 5 3 4 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -58. -63. -67. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -11. -8. -5. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -22. -28. -35. -43. -52. -62. -70. -76. -81. -85. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.5 120.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##