* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 123 120 118 115 115 115 119 126 136 138 133 129 121 109 103 V (KT) LAND 130 125 123 120 118 115 115 115 119 126 136 138 133 129 121 109 103 V (KT) LGEM 130 123 117 114 111 107 109 116 121 126 129 126 119 113 103 89 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 16 10 6 1 6 6 8 8 9 9 14 18 26 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 3 5 8 7 -1 -1 0 -1 1 1 -4 0 2 6 SHEAR DIR 221 224 234 255 244 240 341 259 299 284 278 269 285 259 241 244 221 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.3 28.0 25.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 166 167 167 165 168 170 166 166 164 160 154 157 137 113 130 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.3 -48.2 -48.2 -47.1 -47.1 -46.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 58 57 59 58 58 59 58 61 64 67 63 60 54 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 28 27 28 30 33 34 37 41 45 46 48 49 50 48 51 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 16 8 5 20 23 33 48 55 74 77 99 106 141 155 171 200 MB DIV 79 83 12 -32 -8 -21 21 -14 46 42 50 28 99 106 144 112 75 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -4 -3 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 4 6 13 22 21 13 1 LAND (KM) 720 628 549 500 465 442 448 472 500 529 585 615 696 803 938 770 679 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.5 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.0 57.0 57.8 58.6 60.0 61.3 62.4 63.6 64.8 66.0 67.0 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 62 61 64 76 79 84 80 66 63 60 42 40 13 0 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -21. -30. -38. -45. -46. -51. -55. -62. -70. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -10. -5. 0. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 22. 24. 24. 25. 21. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -15. -11. -4. 6. 8. 3. -1. -9. -21. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 18.6 55.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 735.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/08/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 35( 63) 32( 75) 31( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 9( 15) 14( 27) 21( 43) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 125 123 120 118 115 115 115 119 126 136 138 133 129 121 109 103 18HR AGO 130 129 127 124 122 119 119 119 123 130 140 142 137 133 125 113 107 12HR AGO 130 127 126 123 121 118 118 118 122 129 139 141 136 132 124 112 106 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 115 115 115 119 126 136 138 133 129 121 109 103 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 108 108 112 119 129 131 126 122 114 102 96 IN 6HR 130 125 116 110 107 104 104 104 108 115 125 127 122 118 110 98 92 IN 12HR 130 125 123 114 108 104 104 104 108 115 125 127 122 118 110 98 92