* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 45 53 59 65 72 79 86 89 89 89 90 84 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 45 53 59 65 72 79 86 89 89 89 90 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 39 42 47 52 59 67 72 74 78 81 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 26 25 16 19 20 18 20 17 17 8 2 10 10 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -2 -4 3 7 0 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 0 -3 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 262 284 306 310 293 256 233 220 200 185 162 195 138 283 233 266 93 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 141 138 140 139 141 142 137 143 141 137 139 144 144 140 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 59 59 62 61 58 55 54 48 48 45 48 45 40 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 15 15 18 22 25 27 31 34 37 38 39 40 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 73 61 56 61 57 51 69 62 81 90 87 93 85 85 91 85 40 200 MB DIV -4 -9 26 77 108 29 53 58 33 18 17 3 2 12 18 -11 -41 700-850 TADV 4 2 10 9 3 3 6 4 6 3 9 12 4 5 4 5 -4 LAND (KM) 1754 1878 2004 2111 2219 2289 2247 2212 2221 2238 2054 1895 1740 1634 1574 1480 1340 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.3 20.9 22.2 23.6 25.3 26.7 28.2 29.8 31.2 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.9 36.2 37.3 38.4 40.0 41.1 42.0 42.5 42.9 43.4 43.8 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 29 27 32 29 30 17 17 32 26 13 14 16 14 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 24. 30. 37. 44. 51. 54. 54. 54. 55. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 33.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 7.3% 6.6% 3.9% 7.7% 7.9% 9.9% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 2.7% 2.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 41 45 53 59 65 72 79 86 89 89 89 90 84 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 40 44 52 58 64 71 78 85 88 88 88 89 83 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 40 48 54 60 67 74 81 84 84 84 85 79 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 40 46 52 59 66 73 76 76 76 77 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT