* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 61 56 50 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 61 56 50 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 66 58 52 47 40 34 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 6 8 7 14 16 15 19 24 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -4 0 -3 4 10 10 6 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 75 120 162 216 221 210 224 231 230 226 246 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.6 23.8 23.7 23.7 22.8 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.8 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 110 101 100 99 89 83 83 86 86 88 93 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 62 57 51 47 42 39 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 29 28 26 24 21 19 16 14 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 88 85 68 60 46 13 -3 -18 -20 -21 -18 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 71 56 27 16 13 11 -22 -14 -12 -4 -18 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 4 0 2 7 5 5 6 3 6 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1094 1133 1178 1201 1234 1289 1295 1290 1380 1461 1539 1653 1822 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.8 24.7 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.1 124.2 125.1 125.9 127.1 127.8 128.7 129.9 130.9 131.7 133.0 134.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 5 4 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -33. -40. -46. -51. -55. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -19. -25. -32. -41. -50. -59. -65. -72. -76. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.1 121.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##