* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 96 98 98 98 104 107 116 126 137 141 138 132 125 116 108 V (KT) LAND 105 98 96 98 98 98 104 107 116 126 137 141 138 132 125 116 108 V (KT) LGEM 105 96 92 91 91 93 98 107 116 122 126 124 117 113 103 87 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 13 9 5 2 8 4 8 3 9 8 16 23 39 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 3 5 7 1 -3 -4 0 -1 2 4 -1 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 225 233 243 249 246 281 264 278 310 277 303 268 277 252 230 216 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.3 27.9 26.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 167 167 165 166 168 170 168 165 163 158 154 157 136 114 129 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -49.2 -48.8 -48.1 -47.2 -47.0 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 58 57 57 56 56 55 61 63 67 63 55 36 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 27 28 28 34 35 38 41 44 45 48 48 51 51 52 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 9 3 11 21 25 39 50 58 80 78 100 110 159 194 217 200 MB DIV 79 20 -10 5 0 -2 9 14 54 29 37 68 96 134 101 85 34 700-850 TADV -8 -2 -4 -1 -6 -4 0 0 -1 -1 2 8 15 18 8 -2 0 LAND (KM) 624 545 482 446 427 420 425 446 471 529 558 594 692 839 895 742 684 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.0 57.9 58.6 59.4 60.7 62.0 63.1 64.4 65.5 66.5 67.3 67.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 8 12 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 62 63 70 81 82 86 74 63 65 59 40 36 12 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -12. -17. -20. -20. -24. -27. -34. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -9. -7. -3. 0. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 15. 20. 24. 25. 27. 26. 29. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -7. -7. -7. -1. 2. 11. 21. 32. 36. 33. 27. 20. 11. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.0 56.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 591.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.5 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.4% 4.3% 3.3% 2.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/09/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 19( 41) 21( 53) 21( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 3( 7) 13( 19) 7( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 98 96 98 98 98 104 107 116 126 137 141 138 132 125 116 108 18HR AGO 105 104 102 104 104 104 110 113 122 132 143 147 144 138 131 122 114 12HR AGO 105 102 101 103 103 103 109 112 121 131 142 146 143 137 130 121 113 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 95 101 104 113 123 134 138 135 129 122 113 105 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 86 92 95 104 114 125 129 126 120 113 104 96 IN 6HR 105 98 89 83 80 78 84 87 96 106 117 121 118 112 105 96 88 IN 12HR 105 98 96 87 81 77 83 86 95 105 116 120 117 111 104 95 87