* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 59 67 73 79 84 90 88 87 83 80 73 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 59 67 73 79 84 90 88 87 83 80 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 51 57 62 67 71 73 74 72 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 27 26 17 18 21 24 20 24 23 13 10 17 17 16 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -5 0 7 1 1 -3 3 0 1 -3 1 2 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 277 302 309 298 267 249 232 204 200 187 181 276 251 205 234 301 8 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 137 140 139 140 140 139 140 141 137 140 145 140 137 134 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 58 57 61 61 58 55 55 51 50 49 51 45 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 21 25 27 31 35 37 40 39 41 40 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 57 57 55 54 72 71 82 100 94 88 65 68 67 55 12 200 MB DIV -7 20 58 86 58 39 45 48 36 5 -3 -5 2 54 16 -16 -21 700-850 TADV 3 9 11 5 3 6 1 5 3 7 8 10 10 6 6 10 6 LAND (KM) 1898 2013 2130 2229 2299 2256 2237 2225 2281 2135 1984 1816 1625 1531 1520 1452 1300 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.9 24.3 25.9 27.8 29.3 30.7 32.2 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.5 39.5 40.7 41.4 42.1 42.4 42.6 42.8 43.2 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 8 9 9 7 8 8 7 2 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 28 32 37 34 21 15 32 23 19 11 15 13 12 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 16. 13. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 27. 31. 34. 31. 31. 29. 27. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 32. 38. 44. 49. 55. 53. 52. 48. 45. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 35.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.1% 5.9% 5.4% 2.4% 6.7% 7.3% 9.9% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.3% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 2.3% 2.6% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 44 51 59 67 73 79 84 90 88 87 83 80 73 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 49 57 65 71 77 82 88 86 85 81 78 71 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 52 60 66 72 77 83 81 80 76 73 66 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 43 51 57 63 68 74 72 71 67 64 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT